I’ve been sick as hell, so I haven’t been writing much lately.  That shouldn’t dissuade you from running with my picks though.  What should stop you in your tracks is, I was 6-9 last week, taking me to 18-23 overall.  You probably can’t retire on those winnings.  However, hope springs eternal, so here is this week’s fine set of gambling guidelines for your perusal.

Panthers (-3.5) vs Dolphins

This was Thursday’s game and I’m already in the fucking hole.  My rationale was that Ronnie Brown is pretty much dead, leaving the Dolphins with nobody that can play QB, including the guy who was not a QB.  I didn’t count on Ricky Williams going nuts, but it did help my fantasy team, so I’m not complaining too much.

Packers (-6.5) vs 49ers

Strictly a Lambeau Field pick.  Both of these teams are completely a Jekyl & Hyde show, so it could really be 35 points in either direction.  Stay far away from this game unless you’re betting at gun point or too drunk to comprehend you’re in the sports book and not at the Chicken Ranch.

Jaguars (-8.5) vs Bills

The Bills fired Dick Jauron this week, a guy they should have never hired in the first place.  Many “feel” bettors will tell you to always bet a team after something like this occurs and in many cases I agree.  However, the Bills are horrible so unless they re-animated Vince Lombardi, I’d bet the other way.

Cowboys (-11.5) vs Redskins

I dislike the Cowboys immensely, but it’s hard to side with Washington when they’re so screwed up.  They really only seem to score on trick plays and eventually even I (in my vast Tecmo Bowl playbook) run out of exotic flea-flickers and fake field goals to call.

Falcons (+6.5) at Giants

Everyone is waiting for the Giants to wake up and start playing well and it really hasn’t happened.  The Falcons are sliding and are possibly starting Mike Rozier at RB this week because all of the ones from this decade are hurt and inactive this week.  Look for Matt Ryan to turn it around and steal one in NY.

Vikings (-10.5) vs Seahawks

Seattle is horrible and their unis are ugly.  That should give you about a 10 point cushion right there, now the Vikes just have to score one point and we’re there.

Steelers (-9.5) at Chiefs

KC is terrible.  Larry Johnson got cut, Dwayne Bowe is out for juicing up, Derrick Thomas died tragically in 2000, and Deron Cherry retired in 1991.  If those aren’t good enough reasons to bet against them, you obviously don’t speak English.

Saints (-11.5) at Bucs

New Orleans is unstoppable and it’s hard to name five guys that play for Tampa on either side of the ball.

Lions (-3.5) vs Browns

Another home field pick here.  This could be one of the worst football games on the young century.

Ravens (-0.5) vs Colts

It’s starts getting very difficult to stay undefeated at this juncture of the season.  I don’t think the Ravens are that great but Ray Lewis can still murder you, figuratively and literally.  I would think this line should be 3-5 points going the other way.  That makes me think something is up (fix).  Go with Atlantic City on this one.

Cards (-8.5) at Rams

I feel like the Rams’ awfulness is leveling off a little bit, so I almost want to pick that home to cover.  But, I’m not.  Too much Fitz and Boldin.

Patriots (-10.5) vs Jets

As much as I loved to see Bill Belichick completely blow the game for his team last week with that fucked up 4th down call, it doesn’t bode well for their next opponent, the Jets.  Pats romp at home.

Chargers (-2.5) at Broncos

Real talk, I’m not crazy about this pick.  The Chargers should be so much better than they are and I continue to pick them (often incorrectly) for this reason.  I’m going to pick them again anyway, because I think underachieving will beat overrated in this case.  Plus the Broncos are likely going to have to start Chris Simms at QB…never a good thing.

Bengals (-9.5) at Raiders

Are we convinced that Cincy is for real yet?  Not completely, but they’re definitely better than Oakland in almost every way, unless you’re talking about your head coach sucker punching an assistant.  Then, the Raiders win.

Eagles (-3.5) at Bears

I’m done with Chicago.

Titans (+4.5) at Texans

The Titans are starting to win some games and the Texans are overrated.  Sounds like a 4.5 point underdog’s dream.

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Tags: Football Picks, NFL

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