As discussed on TSS #50, here are the Steelers prop bets for 2008 according to BoDogLife.com:

Odds to win Super Bowl XLIII: 18/1

I figure this is about right, ranking the team as the 8th best in the NFL.  It's hard to justify better odds on a team that backed into the playoffs last year and actually may have gotten a little worse.

Odds to win the 2008 AFC Championship: 9/1

Just low enough to make you think the Steelers have a chance and just high enough to convince you there's money to be made on this bet.

Odds to win the AFC North Division: 1/1

How can you argue with that?  All the other teams suck.

O/U on team wins: 9

Right on the money.  Some things go wrong and they could end up around 7, but probably no worse.  A few lucky bounces and they could stretch to 10 or 11.  Too close to call.

Bill Cowher be coaching an NFL team in 2009: 13/10

I don't know if it will necessarily be 2009, but he'll definitely coach again in this league.  When's the last time someone in good health quit and didn't come back?  

O/U on passing yards for Big Ben: 3350

He's only been over that number once in 4 seasons.  2007, his best year by far, he went for 3154 in 15 games.  I'd be surprised if he gets anywhere near that 3350 number this year.

O/U on passing TDs for Big Ben: 26

He threw for 32 last year, prior to that, 18 was his best.  I'd have to go over on this one.  The Steelers line is pretty terrible, so it'll be difficult for them to just press the ball into the end zone inside the 10.  Look for them to throw a lot in that area, giving Ben some high TD numbers…around 30ish.

O/U on sacks allowed: 27

Ben was sacked 47 times last year.  Way over.

O/U on Willie Parker rushing yards: 1200

He's averaging 1337 over three years as a starter.  Mewelde Moore and Gary Russell aren't going to see much action carrying the ball and Rashard Mendenhall is still a good year away from taking away any significant carries from Parker, so the smart bet is probably over.  The only question is, can Parker survive another 300+ carry season?

O/U on Willie Parker TDs: 4.5

This line was probably set before Mendenhall started coughing the ball up in the preseason.  Until he proves they can trust him, Parker will likely get most of the goalline carries, so over looks like a sure thing here.

O/U on Mendenhall rushing yards: 675

Way too high.  I'm not saying he won't eventually rise to split carries or ultimately take Willie Parker's job, it just won't be this year.  675 would mean either Parker got hurt or Moore and Russell got almost zero touches between the two of them.

O/U on Mendenhall TDs: 6.5

Again, this was probably set before his ball security problem started to manifest itself.  I'd go under.

O/U on Hines Ward receiving yards: 875

Ward has seen a decline in yardage every year since 2002, where he peaked at 1329.  I actually think this number is right on, but if I had to bet it, I'd say over.  It's hard to envision a scenario where he averages less than 55 yards a game unless he's hurt.

O/U on Ward receiving TDs: 6

If the short yardage running game is as bad as I think it will be, Ward should pull in 8-10 TDs with no problem.

O/U on Santonio Holmes receiving yards: 1075

Over.  The guy is an out-and-out stud.  If he doesn't break 1000 yards receiving, the Steelers are in deep trouble.

O/U on Holmes receiving TDs: 8.5

This is a tough one to gauge.  Hines Ward is arguably the best receiver in Steelers history and has only broken nine TDs three times in nine years as a starter.  Louis Lipps did it once, Lynn Swann twice, John Stallworth once.  I know this is a different era, but that's still a lot of TDs.  I'm going under, but it'll be close.

O/U on James Harrison sacks: 6

This is another good one to throw away money on.  Harrison is horribly streaky, running amok in the opposing backfield for an entire game, then not to be heard from for a month.  He's liable to put up six sacks in the first game and not have another one the whole season.  I'd go with over, simply because I wouldn't want to have to tell James I bet against him.

Similar Posts:

• Willie Parker Signs With The Redskins
• The Quest For Perfection Is Over As Steelers Lose To Arizona 21-14
• Steelers Bid Adieu To Najeh

Tags: ben roethlisberger, betting, bill cowher, hines ward, james harrison, NFL, rashard mendenhall, santonio holmes, steelers, willie parker

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.